AI 2027 Tracker
Tracking predictions from the AI 2027 scenario against reality.
Status Breakdown
Visual Overview
Status Distribution
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By Category
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GLOBAL AI CAPEX $1T (KEY METRICS 2026 sidebar). Note: Compute Forecast supplement shows annual spending: $270B (2024), $400B (2025), $600B (2026), $1T (2027) — suggesting $1T may be the 2027 annual figure, not cumulative by 2026. The KEY METRICS placement is ambiguous; tracker operationalizes as cumulative.
Agent-2 is 'only' a little worse than the best human hackers, but thousands of copies can be run in parallel, searching for and exploiting weaknesses faster than defenders can respond. (page 10)
Data center construction accelerates dramatically, with power grid constraints becoming a real bottleneck.
Hundreds of billions pour into AI infrastructure, with hyperscalers racing to build compute capacity at unprecedented scale.
AI-driven job displacement becomes visible enough to trigger stock market volatility and significant public backlash.
Current Assessment
July 2026 Summary
The tracker remains mixed, with no new status changes from the June evidence runs. The strongest movement this month was in restricted frontier access, cyber and bio risk classifications, lab revenue, defense integration, and infrastructure constraints. Those areas continue to look directionally consistent with the scenario.
The central unresolved test is still the AI R&D feedback loop. Internal lab reports and benchmark movement support some acceleration, but the tracker has not yet seen external, controlled evidence that AI is broadly speeding frontier AI research by the multipliers the scenario requires.
Bottom line: keep the overall assessment unchanged. AI 2027 continues to look strongest on infrastructure, revenue, defense integration, cyber capability, and gated frontier access. The recursive R&D mechanism remains the key uncertainty for the next monthly review.