AI 2027 Tracker
Tracking predictions from the AI 2027 scenario against reality.
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There is a 10,000 person anti-AI protest in DC.
GLOBAL AI CAPEX $1T (KEY METRICS 2026 sidebar). Note: Compute Forecast supplement shows annual spending: $270B (2024), $400B (2025), $600B (2026), $1T (2027) — suggesting $1T may be the 2027 annual figure, not cumulative by 2026. The KEY METRICS placement is ambiguous; tracker operationalizes as cumulative.
Producing domestic chips about three years behind the U.S.-Taiwanese frontier.
85% on Cybench, matching a top professional human team on hacking tasks that take those teams 4 hours
Agent-2 is 'only' a little worse than the best human hackers, but thousands of copies can be run in parallel, searching for and exploiting weaknesses faster than defenders can respond. (page 10)
Current Assessment
May 2026 Summary
The tracker shows a mixed but still directionally relevant picture. Several qualitative predictions around agents, coding tools, infrastructure investment, lab competition, and institutional response have materialized, while important quantitative milestones remain uneven.
The most interesting divergence is still between capability and scale: METR-style agent horizons and some deployment signals have moved quickly, while frontier training-compute milestones, valuation targets, and parts of the R&D feedback-loop thesis remain harder to verify or behind the original pace.
Bottom line: AI 2027 remains worth tracking closely, but the public evidence supports a sober read: real directional signal, uneven timing, and substantial uncertainty around the most consequential 2026–2027 claims.